Hard Knocks Appearance Doesn’t Lead To Rise In Detroit Lions Futures Bets

Written By Drew Ellis on September 8, 2022

It’s fair to say that the Detroit Lions have had a lot of positive momentum in the offseason.

A solid NFL Draft and a good experience with HBO’s Hard Knocks has many sports bettors thinking 2022 could be a big year for Detroit.

As we approach kickoff to Week 1 of the season, just how have the odds and numbers shifted for the Detroit Lions?

Percentage of bets on Detroit Lions dip after Hard Knocks

In slightly surprising news, the amount of bets and handle the Lions had in NFL futures markets have dipped since Hard Knocks debuted five weeks ago.

Before jumping into the latest numbers when it comes to Detroit Lions odds, there could be a few reasons for the drop.

First, more sports bettors have committed to their NFL futures wagers. As the season drew closer, more bettors decided to finally stake their claim.

Second, the Lions received a lot of the early wagers, especially back when their odds were longer. As their odds improve, some may not be as willing to bet on them.

At BetMGM Michigan Sportsbook, here’s how the numbers shifted:

Super Bowl Odds

  • Pre-Hard Knocks: 2.1% of tickets, 1.5% of handle (+12500)
  • Post-Hard Knocks: 2.2% of tickets, 1.4% of handle (+12500)

NFC Championship Odds

  • Pre-Hard Knocks: 13% of tickets, 10% of handle (+5000)
  • Post-Hard Knocks: 12.3% of tickets, 9.6% of handle (+5000)

NFC North Championship Odds

  • Pre-Hard Knocks: 57.4% of tickets, 51.9% of handle (+850)
  • Post-Hard Knocks: 50.1% of tickets, 42.4% of handle (+850)

Regardless what the numbers say, one thing is clear – sportsbooks will be taking a big loss this year if the Lions shock the world.

Lions still longshots, but moving up NFL odds boards

Heading into the NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions were one of the biggest longshots to win the Super Bowl, the NFC Championship and the NFC North.

While Detroit still sits as a longshot, there has been a shift in a positive direction for the Lions.

Most NFL odds have seen the Lions make jumps, but here’s just what BetMGM Michigan has seen.

BetMGM on Day 1 of the NFL Draft (April 28):

  • Super Bowl Odds: Lions +15000
  • NFC Championship Odds: Lions +6600
  • NFC North Championship Odds: Lions +1200
  • Make The Playoffs: Lions +500

Here’s where the odds sit as of Sept. 7:

  • Super Bowl Odds: Lions +12500
  • NFC Championship Odds: Lions +5000
  • NFC North Championship Odds: Lions +850
  • Make The Playoffs: Lions +350

Lions most bet on win total, making playoffs

Along with the improving odds, the Lions are racking up the positive wagers when it comes to making the playoffs and going over their proposed win total.

Most sportsbooks list the Lions with an over/under regular season win total of 6.5.

The over originally opened with odds of +120 at BetMGM Michigan, but now sits at -145.

Currently, the Lions are the most bet over at BetMGM in the entire league. The over is getting 88% of the tickets and 87% of the handle in the market.

When it comes to making the playoffs, BetMGM is reporting that 95% of the tickets in the Lions market are going on them to make it. That also makes up 97% of the handle.

Similar to the win total, the Lions have the most tickets to make the playoffs across the country at BetMGM, and are the second biggest liability for sportsbook.

Dan Campbell the Coach of the Year favorite

Perhaps there’s no member of the NFL that’s seen a bigger boost in their respective odds than Lions head coach Dan Campbell.

The second-year leader of the Lions has been embraced by the NFL fanbase leading into the new season.

Opening around a +1600-2000 odds depending on the sportsbook, Campbell is now the favorite at some books, and among the top favorites everywhere.

A big reason behind that is that sports bettors are putting money on him.

A pair of Michigan’s top sportsbooks provided the latest betting data on Campbell in their Coach of the Year markets:

  • BetMGM Michigan: 27.4% of the tickets, 27.3% of the handle (currently +1000)
  • DraftKings Sportsbook MI: 22% Handle and 11% bets (currently +1600)
Photo by Carlos Osorio / Associated Press
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Drew Ellis

Drew Ellis is the Lead Writer of PlayMichigan, the No. 1 source for online gambling news in Michigan. A lifelong resident of the state, Ellis has been working in various forms of media since 1998, including more than a decade in the sports betting industry prior to transitioning into US casino markets in 2020.

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