Betting With The Heart: Matthew Stafford Is Michigan’s Early 2021 NFL MVP Pick

Written By Danny Lawhon on August 25, 2021

Matthew Stafford may be gone from the Detroit Lions and on to the Los Angeles Rams, but he certainly hasn’t been forgotten in the Michigan sports betting scene. Some new NFL MVP odds factoids are proving some Michiganders’ financial hearts have moved west, at least for one season.

The longtime silver-and-blue signal-caller was traded this past offseason for Jared Goff and several high draft picks. As the 2021 season nears, BetMGM Sportsbook brought a peek behind the curtain Wednesday to where state loyalties lie in their futures bets.

And Lions fans are a loyal bunch.

MVP odds for Matthew Stafford a value bet

There’s little surprise in terms of who’s leading the way odds-wise at BetMGM. Stop us if you’re stunned to see these quarterbacks at the front of the line:

  • Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (+600)
  • Aaron Rodgers, Packers (+1100)
  • Josh Allen, Bills (+1400)
  • Tom Brady, Bucs (+1400)
  • Dak Prescott, Cowboys (+1600)
  • Lamar Jackson, Ravens (+1800)

Ho-hum, right?

But the seventh name on the MVP odds list is Stafford, whose jaunt into the NFC West to spearhead coach Sean McVay’s offense has oddsmakers optimistic of his just-off-the-radar chances.

He sits at +2000 for the award, with his 45,000 career passing yards and more than 280 touchdowns in Detroit as evidence of his ability to boost his performance even more with a star-studded offensive unit. Live optimum odds across all Michigan sportsbooks for NFL MVP are below.

Given that the Rams themselves are fourth in line to win the Super Bowl at +1200 odds, the corresponding number for Stafford is sensible. But Lions fans seeing that number, and their own poor outlook for the year (+25000 Super Bowl, 4.5 or 5 wins, and Goff also at +250

00 for MVP) could allow for some secondary rooting this season.

That logic is bearing out, as a data report from BetMGM released Wednesday indicated that Stafford was the top pick among Michigan bettors for the MVP by both ticket percentage and handle percentage.

He’s gaining some national attention heading into the season, too, as most recently evidenced by an in-depth ESPN Cover Story profile.

For what it’s worth, the Lions, despite those remarkably long odds, are still the in-state Super Bowl pick by ticket volume, with handle swaying the conversation toward the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Matthew Stafford 2021 prop bets

Of course, if you’re wanting to delve further into following Stafford for the entire season, you’ve got plenty of proposition bets at your disposal, too.

PointsBet Sportsbook, for example, has equal -115 odds on Stafford’s passing total, set at 4,575.5 yards. The over/under on touchdowns is 26.5 (-140/+110).

Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, the touchdown odds were more evenly split as of Wednesday at -115, but on a total of 28.5. As for passing yards, the number is again set a little higher, at 4,595.5. The under is even money, while betting the over accounts for a -130 wager.

The most advantageous live numerical odds in Michigan on Stafford’s passing yards total is . The top opportunity for touchdowns is .

Photo by Ashley Landis/AP
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Danny Lawhon

Danny has more than a decade of reporting experience in three states, including nearly 10 years with the Des Moines Register. He's covered college and professional sports, the NCAA Tournament and the PGA, LPGA and Champions Tours. Danny is a professional musician in his spare time and plays the piano and pipe organ (seriously). He now covers the online gambling industry in Michigan.

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