Michigan’s Super Bowl Proxy? Matthew Stafford, Rams Remain Viable Odds Play

Written By Drew Ellis on December 22, 2021
Matthew Stafford Rams Super Bowl Odds December 2021

With three weeks left in the 2021 NFL regular season, Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams remain very much in the mix as far as Super Bowl odds are concerned.

Following a hard-fought 20-10 win over the Seattle Seahawks on Tuesday night, the Rams remain tied for the second-best record in the NFC.

Do oddsmakers at legal Michigan sportsbooks believe that Stafford can get the job done with the Rams?

Stafford, Rams a game out of first in NFC

With Tuesday’s win, Los Angeles is now 10-4 on the season.

The Rams find themselves a game behind the Green Bay Packers for first in the NFC standings. They are tied with the Arizona Cardinals for first in the NFC West division race.

However, the Cardinals own the tiebreaker between the two right now, given their  4-1 division record. The Rams are 3-2 in the NFC West. Both have one game remaining in the division in Week 18.

That tiebreaker could be key, as four NFC teams sit at 10-4 right now. Whoever finishes second in the West will have to go on the road for the first round of the playoffs. The winner could be the No. 2 seed, or even at the top with a first-round bye, if things go their way.

Rams still on the outside of Super Bowl chase

Though being right in the mix for the best record, oddsmakers still see the Rams having an uphill climb.

BetMGM Sportsbook currently lists the Rams at +135 to win the NFC West, while the Cardinals are getting -165 odds.

Interestingly, in the conference race, BetMGM has the Rams at +450 to win, which is third only to the Packers and defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Green Bay is a +230 favorite right now, while Tampa is at +270. The Cardinals are listed at +750.

In the Super Bowl race, the Rams are currently listed at +900 to win it all. Only three teams have shorter odds. Those teams are the Packers (+475), the Kansas City Chiefs (+475) and the Bucs (+550).

Rams remain a top liability for sportsbooks

Probably with a little help from Michigan-based Stafford fans, the Rams remain a high liability according to BetMGM’s numbers.

They are the third-highest liability in the Super Bowl wagers behind the Cardinals and Bucs.

The Rams are getting 9.1% of the tickets and 7.5% of the handle in the Super Bowl market. Tampa is tops in both markets at 10.4% of tickets and 16.5% of the handle.

In the NFC market, the Rams are getting just 8.6% of the handle, which ranks sixth. The Packers lead in handle at 20.2%, while the Cardinals lead in tickets at 19.8%.

The NFC West market has a whopping 44% of the handle on the Rams with just 32% of the tickets. Arizona is at 33% of the tickets and 32% of the handle.

Stafford still a top MVP option

Though Matthew Stafford had a dip during the Rams’ 3-game losing streak, he has bounced back nicely in recent weeks.

In the win at Arizona on Dec. 13, Stafford threw for 287 yards and three touchdowns. Tuesday night against Seattle, Stafford had 244 yards with two scores and an interception.

Stafford’s 35 touchdowns this season already ranks as his second-best career performance. He had 41 for Detroit in 2011. He is currently having a career-best year in completion percentage (67.6) and rating (108.2).

Stafford remains in the NFL MVP mix, sitting with +1600 odds this morning at BetMGM. Four players have shorter odds, led by Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers as +150 co-favorites.

Stafford has the third-most tickets placed at 9.8%, but has just 6.9% of the handle in the MVP market.

Brady has a giant 25.8% of the handle in the race, making him the biggest liability in the market.

Stafford’s teammate, Cooper Kupp, is also making a splash as of late. He started the season at +25000 odds to win the MVP, but now sits at +4000.

Cupp has 122 receptions this season for 1,625 yards and 14 touchdowns. He is on pace to contend for Calvin Johnson’s NFL record of 1,964 yards during the 2012 season. He’s also pushing for the 149 receptions record set by Michael Thomas in 2019.

Photo by Kevork Djansezian/AP
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Drew Ellis

Drew Ellis has lived in Michigan his whole life, and has been writing professionally for the last 21 years. Ellis has covered anything from youth baseball in mid-Michigan, a top-25 college football program, and pro sports in the Detroit area. Always keeping busy, Ellis also has over 10 years of experience in covering sports betting, handling all major sports.

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