Forgive Detroit Lions fans for hoping this offseason that Aaron Rodgers really would be on the move.
Rumors and leaks flew around the Green Bay Packers star quarterback since the spring, with Rodgers eventually settling in for what is (for now) believed to be his final season in green and gold.
As the future Hall of Famer hopes to bounce back on Monday night against the Lions, we wanted to take a look back at Aaron Rodgers’ run tormenting Detroit, and how much anyone taking part in Michigan sports betting has also suffered.
Turns out, Lions’ bettors have done much better, especially as of late.
Aaron Rodgers has dominated the Lions, obviously
As you know, or at least have guessed, Rodgers has owned the hapless Lions during his time in Wisconsin.
After three years backing up Brett Favre, Rodgers took over the starting gig with the Packers in 2008, the year before the Lions drafted Matthew Stafford.
(You remember 2008, right, Lions’ fans?)
Since then, Rodgers is 17-5 outright (a .773 winning percentage) as a starter against Detroit.
That’s significantly better than his .639 winning percentage against the rest of the league, as Rodgers is 112-63-1 in regular-season starts against non-Lions teams.
The only team he’s dominated more in the regular season is Chicago. Rodgers is 20-5 (.800) outright against the Bears. He’s also 4-1 (.800) against the Giants and Rams, but those are the only teams he’s haunted more efficiently than Detroit among squads he’s gone up against at least four times.
Lions’ bettors doing a little better than Lions
However, Detroit has covered the spread in losses five times against Rodgers, according to research done at Covers.com. That includes three of the games that make up the current Green Bay four-game winning streak over Detroit.
Somehow, the Lions actually had a four-game win streak against Green Bay before that. But Rodgers missed two of those games and threw five passes before he was pulled for rest in another.
So, all told, Rodgers is just 12-10 against the spread against Detroit, which means:
- Oddsmakers seem to be doing a good job handicapping these games.
- The hapless Lions vs. the legendary Rodgers storyline should be cautiously examined below face value.
Meanwhile, in 22 meetings, Rodgers has only been an underdog twice against Detroit. He lost both early-season road games at Ford Field in 2014 and 2018.
In the four games since 2008 when Rodgers did not play against Detroit because of injury or rest, the Lions were favored in all four. Detroit won three of them.
After Green Bay looked even shakier than Detroit in last week’s opener, perhaps the Lions have a chance to even the betting score against Rodgers in what could be his final season in the NFC North.
The bad beat to end all bad beats in 2015
This is not to say there hasn’t been a lot of pain for Lions’ bettors in the Rodgers’ era.
Dubbed the Miracle in Motown (apparently), the quarterback’s Hail Mary heave to Richard Rogers in a 2015 Thursday night heartbreak has to rank in the all-time betting bad beats.
If you somehow forgot — and if you had the Lions +2.5, there’s no way you have — Green Bay was given another chance after a facemask call against Detroit’s Devin Taylor for a last play.
Coach Jim Caldwell threw out a baffling defense on the play, and destiny prevailed.
The loss ended a promising three-game win streak for Detroit and closed the door on slim playoff chances for another disappointing Lions season.
It also took money from many Honolulu blue backers.
Where’s Aaron Rodgers going to play next season?
Of course, it’s possible that Rodgers stays with Green Bay somehow. There’s also a chance he’s retired and is hosting Jeopardy! this time next year. But more likely, he’s playing quarterback elsewhere.
The team most often tied to Rodgers this offseason was the Denver Broncos.
Betting odds were even posted in Colorado for the quarterback’s next team this offseason, favoring Denver if Green Bay moved him.
Sportsbooks don’t currently have odds posted for next year. But Ian St. Clair of PlayColorado, who follows the Broncos and Colorado sports betting closely, favors the Broncos for Rodgers’ next move, adding Philadelphia and Las Vegas as possibilities, too.
“A lot of this will depend on how the Broncos and Raiders do,” St. Clair said. “If Teddy Bridgewater plays well and leads Denver to the playoffs, (Broncos GM) George Paton may stick with Bridgewater.”
More beatings coming? Broncos, Eagles, Raiders in Lions future
Taking a peek at the Lions upcoming out-of-division schedules, Detroit plays host to Philadelphia next year and won’t play Denver or Vegas (until the Super Bowl, of course …).
The Lions play Denver and Las Vegas in 2023, along with a to-be-determined team from the NFC East, where Philly resides.
Detroit could be in the clear in 2024, though another NFC East matchup looms. And who knows where the 37-year-old Rodgers will be then?
But it’s a safe bet he’ll beat the Lions each time. Though you might grab the points.