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Americans are expected to wager $29.5 billion through regulated commercial sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season, virtually unchanged from the $29.4 billion estimated for last season.
The forecast comes as Michigan sportsbooks prepare for football season and state officials continue challenging prediction markets that offer contracts tied to NFL games and other sporting events.
The American Gaming Association (AGA) attributed the stalled growth partly to the expansion of platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The trade group argues that those platforms draw wagering activity and tax revenue away from state-regulated operators.
Forecast covers betting through Super Bowl LXI
The difference between the AGA’s rounded estimates represents growth of roughly 0.3%, which the organization characterized as flat year over year.
The projection covers the entire NFL betting calendar, including preseason games, futures accepted as early as March, the regular season, playoffs and Super Bowl LXI in February 2027.
The $29.5 billion represents handle, or the total amount wagered, rather than the revenue sportsbooks retain after paying winning customers.
The AGA did not release individual forecasts for Michigan or other regulated markets. The national projection therefore does not necessarily mean wagering through Michigan sportsbooks will remain flat during the NFL season.
Kalshi sports contracts remain blocked in Michigan
Michigan bettors currently cannot access Kalshi’s sports-event contracts after an Ingham County judge granted the state a preliminary injunction against the company.
The preliminary injunction requires Kalshi to use a geolocation provider licensed by the Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB) to block anyone physically located in Michigan from accessing its sports markets. The company could face a $500,000 penalty for each day it fails to comply.
Attorney General Dana Nessel sued Kalshi in March, alleging that the company offered online sports wagering in Michigan without obtaining an MGCB license.
Kalshi maintains that its event contracts are federally regulated derivatives under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s jurisdiction. Michigan officials argue that contracts tied to sporting outcomes constitute sports wagers and must comply with the state’s Lawful Sports Betting Act.
The preliminary injunction keeps the restrictions in place while the lawsuit continues. It does not resolve the broader dispute over whether federal law prevents Michigan from regulating Kalshi’s sports contracts.
Age limits and customer protections differ
Michigan customers must be at least 21 years old to use a licensed sportsbook. Kalshi generally permits participation beginning at age 18, although its sports contracts are currently unavailable to people located in Michigan.
The AGA estimates that users ages 18 to 20 have generated more than $5.1 billion in sports trading volume on Kalshi nationwide this year. It did not provide a Michigan-specific estimate.
Licensed Michigan sportsbooks must follow requirements covering age verification, responsible gambling, customer funds, withdrawals and complaints. The MGCB also approves the sporting events and wager types they can offer.
Prediction market trades are not included in Michigan’s monthly sports betting reports and do not generate taxes or payments through the state’s licensed sports betting system.
The AGA estimates that prediction markets have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming taxes nationwide since 2025. It did not break down that estimate by state.
Michigan online handle reaches $355.2 million in July
Online sportsbooks accepted $355.2 million in wagers during July, a decrease of 3% from June.
Operators generated $43.4 million in gross sports betting receipts. Revenue after promotions reached $30.8 million, increasing 28.8% from July 2025.
Online sports betting also generated approximately $2.1 million in taxes and payments to the state during the month.
Those results cover all sports rather than NFL betting alone. Michigan’s monthly reports during football season will show whether wagering follows the flat national outlook or records stronger growth.
