Is Betting The Moneyline On March Madness Underdogs Profitable?

Written By Paul Costanzo on March 14, 2023 - Last Updated on March 20, 2023
March Madness underdog

Without the triumph of underdogs, March Madness wouldn’t exist. Sure, the NCAA Tournament would still be a thing, but there would be no madness. It would just be March, um, basketball games.

But, what if you picked every underdog? Not in your bracket. That would be a disaster.

We’re talking picking every underdog in the men’s NCAA Tournament on the moneyline at a Michigan sportsbook. Could they win enough at long enough odds to make you money?

Through two rounds, it looks like the answer is yes. Moneyline underdogs are 15-33 overall, and would have bettors UP $74.02.

Picking underdogs in March Madness

Before trying this experiment, we need to set some ground rules. Specifically, what constitutes an underdog when betting on March Madness.

I will be going with the betting underdog, which isn’t always the seeded underdog. We’re in Year 3 of legal online sports betting in Michigan, so I think we can make this distinction without much confusion.

The main reason for making this decision is that I’ll be getting plus-odds on every matchup. It’s also hard to say “that was unexpected” when a team that was a -125 favorite comes away with a win. It was, in fact, expected, even if they were the 10 seed.

For tracking purposes, we’ll be going with a hypothetical $10 bet on each game. I will list the odds at the time the bet was made, and those will make up the results. But I will also provide the most up-to-date odds.

We’re also starting with Thursday’s games, so no First Four games will be included.

Full disclosure: I am actually doing this, but at $1 per bet. I’m also making my bets at SI Sportsbook MI for no other reason than that’s where I have money, currently.

Betting March Madness underdogs in the Sweet 16

We’re entering the second weekend up $74.02, thanks mainly to Fairleigh Dickinson and Princeton. For full results from the first weekend, keep scrolling.

Here’s what’s at stake in the Sweet 16:

  • Kansas State +100 vs. Michigan State — Best current odds: Kansas State
  • Arkansas +140 vs. UConn — Best current odds: Arkansas
  • Florida Atlantic +195 vs. Tennessee — Best current odds: Florida Atlantic
  • Gonzaga +100 vs. UCLA — Best current odds: Gonzaga
  • San Diego State +250 vs. Alabama — Best current odds: San Diego State
  • Miami +250 vs. Houston — Best current odds: Miami
  • Princeton +375 vs. Creighton — Best current odds: Princeton
  • Xavier +160 vs. Texas — Best current odds: Xavier

Underdog results from the second round of the NCAA Tournament

Once again, all of these bets were placed at SI Sportsbook.

  • Furman +195 vs. San Diego State — Lost $10
  • Tennessee +130 vs. Duke — Won $13
  • Arkansas +150 vs. Kansas — Won $15
  • Princeton +230 vs. Missouri — Won $23
  • Auburn +195 vs. Houston — Lost $10
  • Penn State +195 vs. Texas — Lost $10
  • Northwestern +290 vs. UCLA — Lost $10
  • Maryland +290 vs. Alabama — Lost $10
  • Pittsburgh +180 vs. Xavier — Lost $10
  • Kansas State +100 vs. Kentucky — Won $10
  • Michigan State +130 vs. Marquette — Won $13
  • St. Mary’s +140 vs. UConn — Lost $10
  • Creighton -105 vs. Baylor — Won $9.52
  • Fairleigh Dickinson +550 vs. Florida Atlantic — Lost $10
  • Miami +100 vs. Indiana — Won $10
  • TCU +170 vs. Gonzaga — Lost $10

Underdogs got off to a hot start on Saturday, but finished 3-5 and UP $1.

On Sunday, underdogs were 4-4, although most of the games were fairly tight on the moneyline. Creighton even managed to be an underdog with -105 odds. That meant a profit of $2.52 despite the .500 record.

That puts the total at 15-33 and UP $74.02.

Betting on the first round of the NCAA Tournament

Each of these bets were placed Monday, March 13, at SI Sportsbook at the odds listed.

  • Maryland +120 vs. West Virginia — Won $12
  • Furman +195 vs. Virginia — Won $19.50
  • Missouri +100 vs. Utah State — Won $10
  • Howard +1400 vs. Kansas — Lost $10
  • Charleston +180 vs. San Diego State — Lost $10
  • Princeton +700 vs. Arizona — Won $70
  • Illinois +120 vs. Arkansas — Lost $10
  • Iowa +100 vs. Auburn — Lost $10
  • Oral Roberts +215 vs. Duke — Lost $10
  • Colgate +700 vs. Texas — Lost $10
  • Boise State +100 vs. Northwestern — Lost $10
  • Northern Kentucky +1400 vs. Houston — Lost $10
  • Louisiana +425 vs. Tennessee — Lost $10
  • Penn State +130 vs. Texas A&M — Won $13
  • UNC Asheville +1100 vs. UCLA — Lost $10
  • Texas A&M Corpus Christi +2500 vs. Alabama — Lost $10
  • USC +110 vs. Michigan State — Lost $10
  • Kennesaw State +475 vs. Xavier — Lost $10
  • UC Santa Barbara +475 vs. Baylor — Lost $10
  • VCU +150 vs. St. Mary’s — Lost $10
  • Vermont +475 vs. Marquette — Lost $10
  • Iona +325 vs. UConn — Lost $10
  • NC State +180 vs. Creighton — Lost $10
  • Providence +150 vs. Kentucky — Lost $10
  • Grand Canyon +900 vs. Gonzaga — Lost $10
  • Drake +120 vs. Miami — Best current odds: Drake Lost $10
  • Florida Atlantic +110 vs. Memphis — Won $11
  • Montana State +290 vs. Kansas State — Lost $10
  • Kent State +160 vs. Indiana — Lost $10
  • Pittsburgh +150 vs. Iowa State — Won $15
  • Fairleigh Dickinson +1600 vs. Purdue — Won $160
  • Arizona State +195 vs. TCU — Lost $10

After Thursday’s games, underdogs were 5-11 against the moneyline, but up thanks to Princeton’s win against Arizona.

On Friday, they fared worse overall, going 3-13. But Fairleigh Dickinson’s historic upset of Purdue would have cleared the profitability bar on its own.

Heading into the second round, underdogs were 8-24, but up $70.50.

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Paul Costanzo

Paul Costanzo is the managing editor of PlayMichigan, the No. 1 source for online gambling news in Michigan. He has covered news and sports throughout the state at various media outlets over the past 20 years. Paul works with a talented team at PlayMichigan to provide the latest news and information on Michigan’s booming sports betting, online casino and online poker industries.

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