Without the triumph of underdogs, March Madness wouldn’t exist. Sure, the NCAA Tournament would still be a thing, but there would be no madness. It would just be March, um, basketball games.
But, what if you picked every underdog? Not in your bracket. That would be a disaster.
We’re talking picking every underdog in the men’s NCAA Tournament on the moneyline at a Michigan sportsbook. Could they win enough at long enough odds to make you money?
Through two rounds, it looks like the answer is yes. Moneyline underdogs are 15-33 overall, and would have bettors UP $74.02.
Picking underdogs in March Madness
Before trying this experiment, we need to set some ground rules. Specifically, what constitutes an underdog when betting on March Madness.
I will be going with the betting underdog, which isn’t always the seeded underdog. We’re in Year 3 of legal online sports betting in Michigan, so I think we can make this distinction without much confusion.
The main reason for making this decision is that I’ll be getting plus-odds on every matchup. It’s also hard to say “that was unexpected” when a team that was a -125 favorite comes away with a win. It was, in fact, expected, even if they were the 10 seed.
For tracking purposes, we’ll be going with a hypothetical $10 bet on each game. I will list the odds at the time the bet was made, and those will make up the results. But I will also provide the most up-to-date odds.
We’re also starting with Thursday’s games, so no First Four games will be included.
Full disclosure: I am actually doing this, but at $1 per bet. I’m also making my bets at SI Sportsbook MI for no other reason than that’s where I have money, currently.
Betting March Madness underdogs in the Sweet 16
We’re entering the second weekend up $74.02, thanks mainly to Fairleigh Dickinson and Princeton. For full results from the first weekend, keep scrolling.
Here’s what’s at stake in the Sweet 16:
- Kansas State +100 vs. Michigan State — Best current odds: Kansas State
- Arkansas +140 vs. UConn — Best current odds: Arkansas
- Florida Atlantic +195 vs. Tennessee — Best current odds: Florida Atlantic
- Gonzaga +100 vs. UCLA — Best current odds: Gonzaga
- San Diego State +250 vs. Alabama — Best current odds: San Diego State
- Miami +250 vs. Houston — Best current odds: Miami
- Princeton +375 vs. Creighton — Best current odds: Princeton
- Xavier +160 vs. Texas — Best current odds: Xavier
Underdog results from the second round of the NCAA Tournament
Once again, all of these bets were placed at SI Sportsbook.
- Furman +195 vs. San Diego State — Lost $10
- Tennessee +130 vs. Duke — Won $13
- Arkansas +150 vs. Kansas — Won $15
- Princeton +230 vs. Missouri — Won $23
- Auburn +195 vs. Houston — Lost $10
- Penn State +195 vs. Texas — Lost $10
- Northwestern +290 vs. UCLA — Lost $10
- Maryland +290 vs. Alabama — Lost $10
- Pittsburgh +180 vs. Xavier — Lost $10
- Kansas State +100 vs. Kentucky — Won $10
- Michigan State +130 vs. Marquette — Won $13
- St. Mary’s +140 vs. UConn — Lost $10
- Creighton -105 vs. Baylor — Won $9.52
- Fairleigh Dickinson +550 vs. Florida Atlantic — Lost $10
- Miami +100 vs. Indiana — Won $10
- TCU +170 vs. Gonzaga — Lost $10
Underdogs got off to a hot start on Saturday, but finished 3-5 and UP $1.
On Sunday, underdogs were 4-4, although most of the games were fairly tight on the moneyline. Creighton even managed to be an underdog with -105 odds. That meant a profit of $2.52 despite the .500 record.
That puts the total at 15-33 and UP $74.02.
Betting on the first round of the NCAA Tournament
Each of these bets were placed Monday, March 13, at SI Sportsbook at the odds listed.
- Maryland +120 vs. West Virginia — Won $12
- Furman +195 vs. Virginia — Won $19.50
- Missouri +100 vs. Utah State — Won $10
- Howard +1400 vs. Kansas — Lost $10
- Charleston +180 vs. San Diego State — Lost $10
- Princeton +700 vs. Arizona — Won $70
- Illinois +120 vs. Arkansas — Lost $10
- Iowa +100 vs. Auburn — Lost $10
- Oral Roberts +215 vs. Duke — Lost $10
- Colgate +700 vs. Texas — Lost $10
- Boise State +100 vs. Northwestern — Lost $10
- Northern Kentucky +1400 vs. Houston — Lost $10
- Louisiana +425 vs. Tennessee — Lost $10
- Penn State +130 vs. Texas A&M — Won $13
- UNC Asheville +1100 vs. UCLA — Lost $10
- Texas A&M Corpus Christi +2500 vs. Alabama — Lost $10
- USC +110 vs. Michigan State — Lost $10
- Kennesaw State +475 vs. Xavier — Lost $10
- UC Santa Barbara +475 vs. Baylor — Lost $10
- VCU +150 vs. St. Mary’s — Lost $10
- Vermont +475 vs. Marquette — Lost $10
- Iona +325 vs. UConn — Lost $10
- NC State +180 vs. Creighton — Lost $10
- Providence +150 vs. Kentucky — Lost $10
- Grand Canyon +900 vs. Gonzaga — Lost $10
- Drake +120 vs. Miami — Best current odds: Drake Lost $10
- Florida Atlantic +110 vs. Memphis — Won $11
- Montana State +290 vs. Kansas State — Lost $10
- Kent State +160 vs. Indiana — Lost $10
- Pittsburgh +150 vs. Iowa State — Won $15
- Fairleigh Dickinson +1600 vs. Purdue — Won $160
- Arizona State +195 vs. TCU — Lost $10
After Thursday’s games, underdogs were 5-11 against the moneyline, but up thanks to Princeton’s win against Arizona.
On Friday, they fared worse overall, going 3-13. But Fairleigh Dickinson’s historic upset of Purdue would have cleared the profitability bar on its own.
Heading into the second round, underdogs were 8-24, but up $70.50.
