Betting Regular Season vs. NFL Playoffs

The National Football League is truly a tale of two seasons: The regular season and the NFL Playoffs.

All 32 NFL teams enter the regular season with hopes of making the playoffs, but after playing 16 games over 17 weeks, less than half do. That means, while NFL teams try to win every game they can, they can’t let a loss or two destroy the entire campaign. Whereas, in the NFL Playoffs, it’s do or die every week.

There’s a vast difference between the regular season and the postseason for everyone involved, including players, coaches, refs, fans, and, of course, sports wagering sites, oddsmakers, and the casual or serious sports bettor.

The NFL’s regular season is pretty serious business, but the playoffs bring an increased awareness and heightened intensity across the board. Read on to see how the playoffs really work and how the difference between the regular season and playoffs can affect how lines are set and how you should wager on them.

Betting on the NFL regular season

Michigan sportsbooks offer the following list of basic bets on NFL regular-season games and the league as a whole:

• Moneylines: Wager on a favorite or underdog to win a game at moneyline odds. Negative odds are posted for favorites, representing how much you need to wager to stand to win $100 plus your stake back. Favorable moneyline odds are posted for underdogs, representing how much you stand to win for every $100 you wager, plus your original stake back. Book the bet at the currently posted moneyline odds and get paid at those odds if the team you bet on wins.
• Point spreads: Wager on a favorite or underdog to win an NFL game once a point spread set by oddsmakers is factored into the final score. Add the points to the underdog’s final score or deduct them from the favorite’s to determine the wagering winner. Book the wager at the currently posted moneyline odds and get paid at those odds if the team you wager on wins after the point spread is factored into the final score.
• Totals: The over/under allows you to wager on whether the combined total points scored will be over or under a line set by oddsmakers. Book the wager at the currently posted moneyline odds and get paid at those odds if the side of the line you chose is correct.
• Props: Side wagers on things that may or may not happen during a game, usually surrounding specific team or player stats, including head-to-head betting.
• Parlays: Combine two or more otherwise individual wagers into a single wager. Get paid at much higher odds than the sum of the individual wagers because each must win for the parlay to pay.
• Teasers: Point spread parlays allow you to move the line in your favor. Get paid at higher odds than the sum of the individual wagers but less than straight parlays.
• Futures: Wager on a team like the Detroit Lions to win over or under a set number of games in the regular season, its division, its conference in the playoffs, or the Super Bowl. Lock in the bet at the currently posted moneyline odds that books adjust for future bets as the season and playoffs continue.
• NFL Live Betting: Book basic NFL bets and wager on expanded in-game NFL betting markets during a game at odds that are adjusted throughout as the action changes.

NFL regular season facts

The NFL comprises 32 teams, and each team plays 16 regular-season games over the 17-week season, spanning from September through early January. The NFL is divided into two 16-team conferences, called the AFC and NFC, and each conference is further divided into four divisions: East, North, South, and West.

Each team’s annual schedule includes a home-and-away two-game series against its three divisional rivals. The rest of each team’s schedule is compiled using the NFL’s own scheduling algorithm, which takes into account the standings from the previous season and previous scheduling patterns.

Each team in a specific division will play all four teams from a single division in the AFC and a single division in the NFC, plus two additional conference opponents based on where each team finished in the previous season’s standings.

The goal for each team is to win as many games as possible and put together the best regular-season record possible, with the ultimate prize being a playoff berth. The team with the top record in the conference earns home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first-round bye. The team with the top record in each division earns a playoff spot and one of the top four seeds.

The teams with the three best records outside of the division winners also make the playoffs and are known as wild-card teams.

NFL regular season betting realities

Early-season NFL lines are based more on opinion than fact. Books have less information to work with and are more likely to make mistakes, giving informed bettors who research teams effectively a better chance of winning.

As the season progresses, books set NFL lines based on how teams are actually performing, and the lines become more accurate as a result. That said, mistakes are still made, and wagering value can be found because of the large volume of NFL games held each week.

However, in the last quarter of the season, oddsmakers have become more familiar with the ongoing events in the league. Teams tend to perform as expected, and oddsmakers can set remarkably accurate lines as a result.

This means it becomes increasingly complex to win bets on the NFL as the season progresses.

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As the NFL season continues, factors such as weather, injuries, home-field advantage, and historical rivalries all influence the lines. However, oddsmakers’ knowledge of the teams and how they are playing this season tends to emerge as the most critical factor.

If you’re going to take NFL betting seriously, you must first understand that it is a war of information. Your goal should be to research teams to the point where you know at least as much as oddsmakers do, allowing you to find the edge if one exists.

Only proper research will tell you what NFL moneylines, spreads, totals, and props you should be wagering each week.

Trim that parlay

More casual NFL bettors are often drawn in by the allure of the big payday that large multi-game parlays present.

There are up to 16 games on the schedule in any given week during the NFL regular season, and a parlay of that size could pay in the neighborhood of +150,000 or more.

That’s life-changing money for most of us, but parlays that big are nearly impossible to win. In fact, most serious sports bettors consider a parlay of this size a sucker bet because the true odds of winning are even greater than what it’ll pay.

There’s nothing wrong with making small wagers within your means on longshots like a full-slate NFL parlay. A handful are bound to hit across the country every year. But if you’re going to wager parlays and want to win more consistently, it’s a better idea to bet smaller parlays.

It’s infinitely easier to hit for a win with just a few games, and the parlay will still pay much better than the sum of the individual bets on NFL regular-season games.

Bet early, bet often.

Because early-season NFL lines are based more on opinion than fact, you should be looking to wager more at that point versus waiting it out. There are additional benefits you can take advantage of.

You should also be looking to wager more NFL futures in the early part of the season. You lock in the odds on a futures bet when you place it, and the odds are almost always bigger in the preseason or early part of the season.

That’s because Michigan sites adjust futures odds alongside a team’s chances, and for most favorites, those chances of winning only get better as the season progresses.

Take note that these increased early-season odds can also allow you to wager on futures more often. Basically, you can hedge your wager on a team to win the Super Bowl by wagering on other teams as well, as long as the odds are long enough to ensure you still earn a profit if one of your teams wins.

Betting on the NFL playoffs

For the most part, Michigan books will offer the same list of basic NFL wagers for the NFL Playoffs as they do for the regular season.

Of course, NFL futures options are initially limited to just the 14 playoff teams, with betting odds on the NFL playoffs shrinking as teams are eliminated. You may find more props surrounding each postseason game than you find in the regular season because oddsmakers can focus on just a handful of games.

Betting lines on the NFL playoffs are generally tighter, with mostly high-quality teams in the single-elimination part of the tournament. Plus, the fact that oddsmakers can focus on just a handful of games means these lines are shockingly accurate and infinitely tougher to wager on.

As a sharp sports bettor, you should look to find a balance between respect for oddsmakers’ playoff lines and the fact that you, too, can focus your research on just a handful of games, giving you the chance to find a bigger edge.

Best NFL playoffs betting sites

Important NFL playoffs betting factors

Injuries and the history between the teams in each game remain significant factors in the NFL Playoffs when it comes to oddsmakers setting lines and you wagering on them.

However, due to the time of year and the quality of the teams that earn the right to play in their home stadium, weather and home-field advantage tend to become even more significant factors in the playoffs.

Once again, as an NFL bettor, research is key, and you should expand your knowledge of the teams and how they are performing this season. Include everything about their home and road records, and how they fare historically against the teams they are playing. This research and a good look at the NFL Playoff betting markets will tell you what moneylines, spreads, totals, props, and futures you should be wagering each week throughout the postseason.

Whether you are wagering on the Wild Card, Divisional, and Conference Championship rounds of the playoffs, or even the Super Bowl, you should always let the research guide you.

NFL playoffs betting tips

NFL Playoffs betting presents an interesting challenge. It’s you against NFL oddsmakers, and you can wager that with limited action to cover, they’ll be on their game.

The following NFL Playoffs betting tips might help you be on your game as well:

• Set a limit and stay within it: Think of the NFL Playoffs as three separate weeks and set a wagering budget, within your means, for each week. Start with Wild Card weekend and, if you’re successful, consider adjusting the budget for the Divisional round. If not, stick with that same budget you set before the playoffs started, rinse and repeat for the Conference Championships.
• Stick to what works: If you’ve had success betting regular-season moneylines and spreads, stick with it throughout the playoffs. Don’t start betting NFL Playoff props just because there’s more of them out there, or creating parlays because they can be smaller and more manageable. While it’s a good idea to diversify and place all kinds of different wagers, you should never try to fix what isn’t broken.
• Bet live: Live NFL betting presents you with a unique opportunity to expand your wagering repertoire, hedge winning wagers, and possibly make up for poor pregame betting decisions. If you’re watching the games anyway, you might as well take a look at the live in-play betting markets where you can hedge against tragic upsets, revise a losing betting strategy, and bet on all kinds of in-game props.

Super Bowl betting

The NFL Playoffs culminate with the Super Bowl. A single championship game for all the marbles means oddsmakers can focus on just two teams, and the lines should be stunningly accurate and even harder to wager on than usual. Unless one team has proven itself the clear favorite throughout the season, Super Bowl lines should be relatively tight with the best teams in football representing their respective conferences.

One game with just two teams also gives you the chance to focus your research, and you should quickly be able to tell if the moneyline, point spread, and totals lines present good wagering opportunities for you.

Props will be a little more challenging to pin down, simply because there will be more of them than in any other game throughout the year.

Super Bowl MVP

For one prop, you’ll be able to wager on who will win the Super Bowl MVP award.

You book these wagers at moneyline odds, with the quarterbacks on either side generally offering the lowest odds. Although if one team or the other has a running back they’ve been truly dependent on all year long, he may emerge as the betting favorite. Just keep in mind that a QB has won the award in 30 of 54 Super Bowls.

You can pick a QB if you want, and take a flyer on a wide receiver, running back, or even a defensive player, and still make a profit if one of them wins. That’s because no one is a true odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl MVP ahead of the game, and the odds should be decent enough on almost every player.

Super Bowl betting tips

The Super Bowl is the single biggest day on the sports wagering calendar, with numerous opportunities and approximately $400 million wagered at legal US sites on the game every year.

With this much to wager on, there’s no one-fits-all Super Bowl betting strategy, but here are a few tips that might help you find Super Bowl betting success:

• Respect the line, fade the public: If there’s one thing we can tell you about the Super Bowl, it’s that the lines will be incredibly accurate. History shows us that favorites are 28-25-2 against the spread, and the over has come in 26-27-1 all-time, as there were no totals betting for Super Bowl I. That tells you the lines have been so accurate you can’t count on one side coming in more often than not. It also tells you the Super Bowl represents the perfect time to try to fade the public. If the opening lines move because of heavy interest on one side, pounce on it. Wagering that oddsmakers’ original predictions will be correct is always a good idea.
• Do your homework: As always, the best regular-season and NFL Playoff betting strategies involve researching the game and the teams and players involved. Wagering opportunities should present themselves when you do the right kind of research ahead of the Super Bowl. Let your research guide you in making betting decisions when it comes to everything from the moneyline and point spread to all the different props available for the big game.
• Use bonuses: The Super Bowl represents the best time to sign up for new accounts with every Michigan online sports betting app you can. Most will be offering sports betting promos in Michigan, including no-deposit and deposit bonuses, bonus bets, and Super Bowl betting promos and odds boosts to new customers.

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How do the NFL playoffs work?

The NFL will expand the NFL Playoffs to 14 teams for the 2020-21 season, and that means three things:

1. Two more teams will make the playoffs this year, one from each conference.
2. There will be two more playoff games, making the Wild Card Round six games instead of four.
3. Only the top team in each conference gets a first-round bye now, as opposed to the top two teams in previous seasons.

The team with the best regular-season record in each of the four divisions is seeded Nos. 1 through 4 in each conference, with the top seed getting a valuable first-round bye.

Now, the three teams with the best records in each conference outside of the division winners advance to the playoffs and are seeded Nos. 5, 6, and 7.

The Wild Card Round now includes three games in each conference:

• 2 vs. No. 7
• 3 vs. No. 6
• 4 vs. No. 5

The highest seed advancing plays the No. 1 seed, and the other two winners face off in the Divisional Round held the following week. Divisional Round winners then face off in the AFC Championship and NFC Championship games the following week.

The conference champions go up against each other in the Super Bowl two weeks later with the NFL title and Vince Lombardi Trophy on the line.

The higher-seeded team maintains home-field advantage throughout the NFL Playoffs until the Super Bowl, which is typically held at a neutral site; however, a team could theoretically play at home, as the Minnesota Vikings nearly did in 2018.